2021-22 NBA Season

[junodog4]

Who do you have, BEA?

My futile attempt at predictions:

EAST

1. Heat - With some Bucks tired and the Nets missing Irving, I think the Heat will be 1st... ...in the regular season.
2. Nets - Even without Mr. Flat Earth, Harden and Durant are killer.
3. Bucks - Too many Olympians. Still stacked, however.

4. 76ers - Simmonds is too much of a question mark.
5. Pacers - Solid, but not flashy.
6. Knicks - Will keep building.
7. Bulls - Back in the mix.
8. Hawks - I actually think there will be a hangover. The new rules hurt Young.

9. Celtics - Just miss out. The playoff race in the East will be tight.
10. Raps - Anunoby and Van Vleet will outshine Siakam.

11. Wizards - Poor Beal. Wasted.
12. Hornets - Solid, but not enough.
13. Pistons - So fun to watch, but will not contend.
14. Cavs - Worth it just to watch SexLand.
15. Magic - One more year of tank. Play the kids.

WEST

1. Jazz - Again. But this time, they won't flame out in the post-season.
2. Mavs - If Porzingis stays healthy.
3. Blazers - Yup... Larry Nance and a healthy Nurkic get these guys higher up. A weaker West helps too.
4. Lakers - Too many injury and 'maintenance' issues.
5. Suns - Not as good as last year.
6. Warriors - Guess who's back... back again.
7. Nuggets - No Murray hurts.
8. Grizzlies - Young and fun.

9. Clippers - No Leonard hurts.
10. Kings - Close to contending.
11. Wolves - Not a typo. I think they'll start to give teams trouble.
12. Pelicans - How long before Zion wants out?

13. Spurs - Need to rebuild.
14. Rockets - Rebuilding in full swing.
15. Thunder - How many picks do they have?
_________________
Finnegan was super bad-ass.

[LedZep]

It's tough as always

EAST

1. Nets
2. Bucks
3. Heat
4. 76ers
5. Celtics
6. Raps
7. Bulls
8. Hawks
9. Knicks
10. Pacers
11. Hornets
12. Wizards
13. Pistons
14. Cavs
15. Magic


WEST

1. Jazz
2. Lakers
3. Warriors
4. Suns
5. Nuggets
6. Mavs
7. Clippers
8. Blazers
9. Grizzlies
10. Kings
11. Spurs
12. T'wolves
13. Pelicans
14. Rockets
15. Thunder
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Finally updated the overall chart

2020s
90s

[AfterHours]

REGULAR SEASON

WEST
1. Jazz
2. Lakers
3. Suns
4. Mavericks
5. Nuggets
6. Warriors
7. Blazers
8. Clippers

EAST
1. Nets
2. Bucks
3. Heat
4. 76ers
5. Celtics
6. Hawks
7. Bulls
8. Knicks

WEST PLAYOFFS - 1st Round

1. Jazz ... 4
8. Clippers ... 3

4. Mavericks ... 4
5. Nuggets ... 2

3. Suns ... 4
6. Warriors ... 3

2. Lakers ... 4
7. Blazers ... 0

EAST PLAYOFFS - 1st Round

1. Nets ... 4
8. Knicks ... 0

4. 76ers ... 4
5. Celtics ... 3

3. Heat ... 4
6. Hawks ... 1

2. Bucks ... 4
7. Bulls ... 1

WEST PLAYOFFS - 2nd Round

1. Jazz ... 4
4. Mavericks ... 3

3. Suns ... 2
2. Lakers ... 4

EAST PLAYOFFS - 2nd Round

1. Nets ... 4
4. 76ers ... 2

3. Heat ... 3
2. Bucks ... 4

WEST PLAYOFFS - CONF FINALS

1. Jazz ... 2
2. Lakers ... 4

EAST PLAYOFFS - CONF FINALS

1. Nets ... 4
2. Bucks ... 3

NBA FINALS

Lakers ... 4
Nets ... 3

My slight doubts with the Nets don't lie in their talent (if Kyrie plays, they are possibly the greatest offensive team in history). Their full team, on paper, should be the favorite. But I just think that 2 of their top players, while superstar talents (Irving, Harden) are likely to either get distracted and lose focus and/or just aren't sacrificial/disciplined enough to lead a team to a title. At the same time, they are the team that can afford the most setbacks and plausibly still win, but usually when a team doesn't have the personnel to fight through the barriers (thinks they've earned it already more so than hungrier teams) that it usually takes to get a title, they find a way not to or are "unlucky", or if their players are also injury prone (like Irving), it just doesn't work out (see Nets last year, see Clippers last 2 years...).

My slight doubts with the Lakers don't lie in their talent either (they are probably the most talented team, top to bottom, ever assembled this year), but definitely do lie in the plausibility of injury, especially if major injury to Lebron or Davis (like what happened last year). And obviously their age is a concern (particularly Lebron ... the rest of their older players are mainly role players). They could actually afford to lose Westbrook during the season and still be the best team in the West, but I do think his relentlessness and fire will prove decisive in the playoffs in putting them over the hump past the best teams. And if Lebron and the coaches can work him in to where he isn't so mistake prone and doesn't have the ball in his hands for too many of the clutch possessions, he could be a really great addition because he is going to be especially driven to prove himself on a championship team. Their defense will probably be a concern in the first portion of the year but as Ariza returns and Bradley rounds into form, this should help short up the wings, along with good team D. I think Davis will have an MVP caliber bounce-back year, and this sort of production is a major reason why I am picking them (and their size and passing and easy buckets, plus superior D to the Nets, would be key reasons why I would pick them to beat them in the Finals).
_________________
Best Classical
Best Films
Best Paintings

[cestuneblague]

[LedZep]

[Repo]

[LedZep]

[Repo]

[AfterHours]

New picks...

WEST - 1st Round

1. Suns in 4
8. Pelicans

4. Mavericks in 7
5. Jazz

.... Luka needs to play at least 5, perhaps 6 games, otherwise I doubt this will hold. At the same time, I am counting on Jazz downward trajectory over the last third of the season, otherwise (if they really show up as a unit) they might be just a bit too much for the Mavs...

3. Warriors in 6
6. Nuggets

... Assuming Steph is healthy, otherwise this could go 7. Jokic's all-around, monster production should be good enough to steal a win or 2 even when there is otherwise a fairly big talent discrepancy between the teams.

2. Grizzlies in 5
7. Timberwolves

EAST - 1st Round

1. Heat in 5
8. Hawks

4. 76ers in 7
5. Raptors

... With 76ers second best defensive player being out for potentially half the series (can't play in Toronto), this is a wash, but I think in the end Embiid will be too much and Harden will show up in enough games. Still, Toronto is the more balanced, deeper team probably, and I wouldn't be surprised if the 76ers bowed out in the first round. I'm not a fan of Harden (more his attitude and how he quits and bails his way out of his contracts, than his play ... I'm not a huge fan of his style of play either but I can respect the talent). So I wouldn't mind at all if he fails as, despite his obvious talent, he is perhaps the least "deserving" superstar in recent memory. On the contrary, I really like Embiid, so rooting for or against the 76ers comes with mixed feelings.

3. Bucks in 5
6. Bulls

2. Celtics in 7
7. Nets

... Maybe the toughest 1st round pick I've ever seen. Something inside of me wants to pick the Nets, and I almost did, because Durant is just so overwhelming offensively especially as the screws tighten in the playoffs as teams become familiar with each other. I consider this a toss up but went with the Celtics because the advanced stats and virtually every metric favors them by ... a lot ... and because they're so well rounded defensively, starting to become kind of reminiscent of the 96-98 Bulls, not that I actually think they're THAT good or have THAT level of synergy, but Smart, Tatum and Williams are among the best at their positions defensively, with Tatum and Brown being the key offensive players not dissimilar to the roles those Bulls played). That said, a major difference maker could be if Simmons returns for the Nets and isn't too rusty, and especially if he makes significant contributions defensively and as a play maker. And, for the Celtics, Williams returning early in the series could push them over the top.

WEST - 2nd Round

1. Suns in 5
4. Mavs

2. Grizzlies
3. Warriors in 6

EAST - 2nd Round

1. Heat in 6
4. 76ers

2. Celtics
3. Bucks in 7

WEST - Conf Finals

1. Suns in 7
3. Warriors

EAST - Conf Finals

1. Heat
3. Bucks in 7

NBA FINALS

Suns in 6 over Bucks

... Suns are firing on all cylinders, seem extra inspired this year, and check all the metrics and talent boxes, so should be the favorite. I'm rooting for Paul as well. He deserves a ring. I really like the fact that he has never taken the easier route (by forming a "super team") and that he clearly makes any team he is on better as a result of his leadership, talent and attention to detail (perhaps the smartest player in the current NBA along with, maybe even above, Lebron).

I would be pretty surprised if the Suns don't get to the Finals. Only a healthy Warriors team should be able to stop them. On the East, it's virtually a toss up between the Celtics, Bucks, Heat, and you could probably throw the Nets in there and even the 76ers (if Harden shows up consistently and doesn't over-reach towards trying to draw fouls instead of "just playing" and being their primary play maker when the game slows down and defenses hone in on him). In the end, I only picked the Bucks because, barring injury, I know Giannis is going to bring it (fearlessly, no question marks), and they play very well as a unit that really knows their roles, and they overall are the most reliable playoff team (ex: 76ers or Boston could realistically lose in the first round but this is extremely unlikely with the Bucks). The East 2nd round, with likely four legitimate contenders playing each other, should be epic. That all said, my Bucks confidence is only by a razor thin margin. After all, the Celtics LOOK like they should come out of the East if we're basing it on the last few months of basketball. And any of those other teams could beat the Bucks if they get hot because the top end talent discrepancy between those 5 is very small, practically a wash. On any given night, Durant is the best player in the league (with no offensive weaknesses), and this gets especially important in the playoffs when he can't be stopped despite the other team's familiarity with them (remember last year when the Nets nearly beat the Bucks with a hobbled Harden and no Kyrie?). That's hard to shake when making picks...
_________________
Best Classical
Best Films
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[junodog4]