It seemed going into the playoffs there were no clear favorites to go to the Finals, that each series from the second round onward was going to be exciting. And yet, most series have been one-sided. LA and Miami each went 12-3 in the first three rounds to get to this point, pretty dominant. Not to contradict AfterHours but I don't think the Lakers are winning in 5. I think this Miami team is legit even though they're a #5 seed. They play good defense and have a great 6th man. I think the Lakers still have the edge overall but I wouldn't be surprised if it takes them 7 games to defeat the Heat. I can even see Miami winning it all.
I almost picked Lakers in 6 instead of 5 and maybe I'll change it before the Finals, but I've picked the Lakers in 6 in each round and they've done it in 5 each time. Barring significant injury (hello Golden State 2019) there is no way they're losing to Miami -- just not going to happen. Bam and Butler are great and Miami is a very disciplined, well coached team. The biggest plus for Miami is they're fearless and just keep coming for you, and they're a very well rounded team. This will keep them in games and they could get 2 instead of 1. But, unless Herro and Dragic and others go nuts from 3 (for 4+ games) Miami is not a truly transcendent team like the Lakers can be on any given game and almost at will if their effort is totally there (and I think it will be given it's the Finals and Lebron will be beyond inspired, bringing the rest of the team with him if he needs to). Lebron and AD will be too much and there is no way they're going to let the Lakers lose; as good as Butler and Bam are, Lebron and AD are a different echelon. Lakers are the best passing team in the league (and perhaps since the 2014 Spurs) and they're going to tear Miami's zone apart. By 3 games in I expect Miami's defense to be in a bit of panic (they won't necessarily look panicked but they will be struggling for solutions, hoping for misses). If Miami wants a chance at getting to 7, they must must must take the first game, before Lebron (and Vogel) is settled in and has them figured out. Maybe Spoelstra has some unseen tricks up his sleeve though... It's possible. One thing they have in they're favor is that Spoelstra and Riley know Lebron better than anyone and might have a plan devised to slow him. The problem is Lebron has the highest basketball IQ in the league and is an even more complete player than he was in the peak of his prime (peak in terms of efficiency, athleticism, consistent intensity, but he is actually even better now in terms of his b-ball IQ and offensive repertoire, the plethora of shots he makes, the number of ways he attacks a defense). Now there is no real way to stop him and he can only stop himself if he happens to have an off night or if he happens to be tired for a couple games and unable to really turn it on (in these cases, defenses appear to be able to stop him). I doubt this will happen and think he is going to take the stage with a vengance knowing that this is probably his best chance he has ever had to win a title. The other problem, no matter what Miami throws at them, is that the Lakers are like a swiss army knife in that they can bend and play well in any style. Miami's only other shot (along with going nuts from 3 for multiple games) will be to muck it up with physical defense, but given the Lakers exceptional passing I doubt it would be enough to take the series. Good luck Miami. _________________ Best Classical Best Films Best Paintings
I like Doc but its a good move. There is no good excuse for their somewhat lax approach/attitude and inconsistent performance in the post season and in the regular season. 65+ games is plenty of time for a team of veterans and with that much talent, to fix all that and mold into a great team. They absolutely shouldve been in the Western Conf Finals battling down to the wire with the Lakers. They were the only team I thought was close to 50/50 to beat them, if they played to their potential or at least very close. Ultimately I think the Lakers wouldve won anyway but it wouldve been very close and not surprising at all if the Clips wouldve taken them down. _________________ Best Classical Best Films Best Paintings
Just finished Game 6 (& game 5 ). (I was camping)! Great series for the most part. I do NOT think we played to our potential, BUT agree they were the better team tonight ( sic Sunday night). They NEED to bring Dragic back! He's amazing.
I almost picked Lakers in 6 instead of 5 and maybe I'll change it before the Finals, but I've picked the Lakers in 6 in each round and they've done it in 5 each time. Barring significant injury (hello Golden State 2019) there is no way they're losing to Miami -- just not going to happen. Bam and Butler are great and Miami is a very disciplined, well coached team. The biggest plus for Miami is they're fearless and just keep coming for you, and they're a very well rounded team. This will keep them in games and they could get 2 instead of 1. But, unless Herro and Dragic and others go nuts from 3 (for 4+ games) Miami is not a truly transcendent team like the Lakers can be on any given game and almost at will if their effort is totally there (and I think it will be given it's the Finals and Lebron will be beyond inspired, bringing the rest of the team with him if he needs to). Lebron and AD will be too much and there is no way they're going to let the Lakers lose; as good as Butler and Bam are, Lebron and AD are a different echelon. Lakers are the best passing team in the league (and perhaps since the 2014 Spurs) and they're going to tear Miami's zone apart. By 3 games in I expect Miami's defense to be in a bit of panic (they won't necessarily look panicked but they will be struggling for solutions, hoping for misses). If Miami wants a chance at getting to 7, they must must must take the first game, before Lebron (and Vogel) is settled in and has them figured out. Maybe Spoelstra has some unseen tricks up his sleeve though... It's possible. One thing they have in they're favor is that Spoelstra and Riley know Lebron better than anyone and might have a plan devised to slow him. The problem is Lebron has the highest basketball IQ in the league and is an even more complete player than he was in the peak of his prime (peak in terms of efficiency, athleticism, consistent intensity, but he is actually even better now in terms of his b-ball IQ and offensive repertoire, the plethora of shots he makes, the number of ways he attacks a defense). Now there is no real way to stop him and he can only stop himself if he happens to have an off night or if he happens to be tired for a couple games and unable to really turn it on (in these cases, defenses appear to be able to stop him). I doubt this will happen and think he is going to take the stage with a vengance knowing that this is probably his best chance he has ever had to win a title. The other problem, no matter what Miami throws at them, is that the Lakers are like a swiss army knife in that they can bend and play well in any style. Miami's only other shot (along with going nuts from 3 for multiple games) will be to muck it up with physical defense, but given the Lakers exceptional passing I doubt it would be enough to take the series. Good luck Miami.
I agree with almost everything, but honestly I've been much less impressed with the Lakers than you seem to be. There are gaping holes in their game, there's just no one who can expose them. AD doesn't rebound and seemingly hates to play at the 5, LeBron is half-assing the defense again, they're a bad 3pt shooting team, they don't have a 3rd option, and among their 7 best players are a 34 year old Rondo and a 34 year old Howard. Honestly, this past-his-prime Rondo may be their third best player right now. But they're a bad matchup for the Heat, since they can go big or small, and I can see them destroying the Heat zone like you said. This Heat team is something else in terms of effort, will, team balance and coaching, but they don't seem to have enough quality to really rival the Lakers.
Happy to be wrong about Celtics beating Heat. I figured they were a worse matchup for them compared to Raptors (my initial prediction was Heat over Raptors in ECF). Now I figure that Lakers are an even worse matchup for them, and I can't really see them stopping both LBJ and Davis, at least not for enough games to win the series. Bam's improvement has been phenomenal (even if it was obvious in the rookie season that he has major potential), but this will be a tough series for him.
Again, I'll be happy to be wrong. The Heat were the team I probably watched the most since I started getting more into the NBA - mostly on account of Dragić playing there, but I always liked their style, and I loved some of their scrappy players in the recent years (e.g. Josh Richardson, both Johnsons), that later got traded away to basically get more talented versions of them in Butler, Crowder, Herro, et al. Anyhow, I predict Lakers in 6.
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