Knicks 4:3 Pacers
This series is completely unpredictable. The Pacers have been the best team in the playoffs, mostly because of the red hot shooting. Carlisle has done wonders and when Hali is being aggressive, this offense is by far the best of the 4 remaining teams. On the other hand, Knicks have a better starting 5, better clutch players and slightly better defense. The Pacers shooting has to fall off a little, but Knicks starting 5 have so much wear and tear from playing under Thibs that I almost expect an injury to occur at some point. Very, very tough to call, but I'm going with Knicks. MSG game 7... Imagine the scenes.
OKC 4:2 Wolves
This will not be a steamroll like some people have predicted. In fact, T'wolves can cause some serious problems to the OKC offense - nothing is stopping them from playing a zone similar to Denver's, but with elite defenders in Gobert and McDaniels instead of Braun and Jokić. Packing the paint, limiting SGA's drives and midrange game as much as possible and making the others shoot 3s seems to be the way to go. On the other side of the ball, this average (for the playoffs) Wolves offense might struggle mightily to score 100 against an all-time OKC defense. A bunch of good, but not great Minnesota passers might be obliterated by OKC wings. And this is the main problem - the only way I can see Wolves winning is with good shooting, keeping the turnovers low (making OKC play against an elite set defense with Gobert in the paint) and Edwards + Randle both playing well. Ultimately, the experience OKC now have after a tough series last round matters a lot, which is why I'm picking them in 6, rather than 7.
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Extremely disappointed with Minnesota's defense. They had flashes, but when Gobert went to the bench their defense completely fell apart. Didn't play the zone nearly as much as I'd hoped, didn't double SGA enough and got completely torched and outcoached. OKC are a good, but not great offensive team. Wolves made them look unstoppable at times. Turnovers didn't help either.
I'm taking a huge L with the other series. Have not been able to predict any series the Pacers played except for the Milwaukee one. It's not over yet, but I don't think this fun, quick offense will lose 3 games in the row. The Knicks defense from the last series has not held up apart from a few stretches. That being said, they played great D in game 5, maybe they can replicate that 2 more times and hope that Indiana's shooting woes continue. _________________ Overall chart Fake overall chart
This is a pretty good breakdown of the scale of overall championship difficulty for the title runs going back to the 80's.
Some I would move higher due to additional context..
1998 Bulls: Pippen missing the first half of the season (and Jordan carrying them to a great record any way), a 34-35 yr old Jordan shouldering an immense load on already weary legs towards a 3rd straight title, 37 yr old Rodman on the decline, oldest team in the league on its last legs ... in the conf finals (with all this in context) battling out with a deeper, physical, more youthful Pacers team, Jordan/Pippen/Rodman/Harper scraping and clawing them to victory defensively (and just enough offense with Jordan, Pippen, Kukoc and some timely 3 pt shooting from Kerr, and some solid shot making from their centers) ... then in the Finals, Pippen injured in game 5 and nothing but a decoy in game 6, Jordan having to control the game, pick his spots, know where to rest (and draw fouls to also stay the pace, give himself rest, keep the defense on its heels from varying angles) and will the team to victory with 45 points despite obvious exhaustion
I would also say Dirk's 2011 Mavs run should be #1 or 2 with Hakeem's 1995 Rockets run correctly placed 1 or 2.
I'm not sure I would place the early 2000s Lakers quite as high because in the 2nd and 3rd they had the top 2 or 3 best players in the world (Duncan or Kobe 2 or 3, take your pick, Shaq #1). Though at the same time, the West may have been the strongest conference 1st seed to 8th seed in NBA history at that time, so I wouldn't argue them much lower than where they are either.
Thunder over Wolves in 5. The Thunder passed their biggest, toughest test today. They are complete top-to-bottom and wore out the Nuggets over seven games. The Wolves, solid as they are, don't have as good a roster as the Nuggets, so what chance do they have if the Nuggets couldn't pull the upset? They are much better rested, and could snag a win in Game 1, plus maybe one on their court. But I don't see them winning this series, barring something very unexpected like an injury or suspension.
ECF prediction
Pacers over Knicks in 6. These teams pulled huge upsets in the ECSF. While it's true both the Cavs and Celtics coughed up leads, and had injury woes, which Indiana and New York benefited from, Indiana looked more convincing. And I'd argue Tatum's injury was a much bigger loss than Cleveland's injuries, and yet the Knicks still got blown out the game after Tatum went down. The Knicks seem like they have good days and bad days. Not the Pacers. They're consistent, they have a strong lineup, and they're peaking at the right time. Brunson might be the best player in the series, but I think Indiana is the better overall team. Could be a fun series, the winner earning the right to get a whooping from the Thunder (assuming that goes according to plan).
For once I made accurate predictions. Now for the Finals:
First off, I'm happy with this match-up. One city will celebrate an NBA championship for the first time (Pacers won some ABA championships in the 1970s, but that was a long time ago, and some say ABA doesn't count). I'm also happy with this match-up because the Lakers and Celtics aren't in it. Especially the Lakers. The NBA would have loved it for financial reasons (and may or may not have tried to give the Lakers a push with that trade a few months ago). Instead, not one, but two small-market teams are here. The TV ratings are gonna suck. But will the series suck?
Thunder over Pacers in 6. OKC is clearly better on paper. They should win this in 5. Indiana, though, has surpassed everyone's expectations. I'll give them one extra win. Heck, I could see them taking it to 7.
First off, I'm happy with this match-up. One city will celebrate an NBA championship for the first time (Pacers won some ABA championships in the 1970s, but that was a long time ago, and some say ABA doesn't count). I'm also happy with this match-up because the Lakers and Celtics aren't in it. Especially the Lakers. The NBA would have loved it for financial reasons (and may or may not have tried to give the Lakers a push with that trade a few months ago). Instead, not one, but two small-market teams are here. The TV ratings are gonna suck. But will the series suck?
Thunder over Pacers in 6. OKC is clearly better on paper. They should win this in 5. Indiana, though, has surpassed everyone's expectations. I'll give them one extra win. Heck, I could see them taking it to 7.
I hope you're right, but I suspect OKC will sweep. OKC's defense is just too good.
Don't get me wrong, what Haliburton and the Pacers are doing, especially with 2nd half comebacks and in the clutch, has been amazing... (and more or less unprecedented with Haliburton in terms of making the game winning play). Some are calling it the "most clutch playoff run ever", which (again, don't get me wrong) isn't a crazy claim. That said...
I'll give the Pacers 2 games instead of 1 because (a) they're really good, very complete team, better than their record; (b) their toughness and fortitude; (c) some potential youthful nerves from OKC where they might drop a game in the clutch that they shouldn't -- otherwise "on paper" it should probably be 5 games.
SGA Finals MVP
Apologies but just thought I'd have a moment of self-congratulations for "user of the day" AfterHours 👏👏👏
If the Pacers pull this off (actually win the series) would it be the biggest upset in NBA Finals history? _________________ Best Classical Best Films Best Paintings
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