MLB 2023 season

[cestuneblague]

Allright looks like we're finally upon the new season, the new rules are already causing all kinds of arguments which I guess can discuss later, but for now just the annual way-off prediction of how each team will fare in their division. But I'm excited for the season, both the mega-expensive Mets and the for-once geniunely exciting Mariners, and got my first Fenways tickets for next week's game against the Pirates. So I guess to start it off...


AL West

Houston- I donno how much they improved, Verlander will be a big loss even as their lineup looks incredibly similar to last year's (with the addition of declining veteran Jose Abreu). Knowing the Fucking Astros they'll probably pull some breakout stars out of nowhere, and they likely will still hold the AL West pennant since the other teams in the division all have their major question marks. Really seem to relish their new role as the league's villian.

Seattle- Made incremental improvements to an already very-good team last year, but it's understandable the long-suffering fanbase was let down them not making a bigger splash in free agency (then again, they probably want to save their money to go all in on Ohtani), and I would've liked more moves in the bullpen or to the bench. However their rotation is so strong and pretty deep with basically six starters, and if a Kelenic or anybody else can finally breakout they could make the Astros sweat a bit. I think they'll be good, and Julio on his own is a reason to make them the team to watch, but likely another offseason (Ohtani ) away from being a true contender.

Texas- Once again, they "won" the offseason, but I'm not convinced they are a playoff team yet despite the expensive shortcuts. As great as DeGrom is, can you really rely that he's going to make more than 25 starts? All their other pitching additions also have major question marks, and the lineup really needs to rely on bounce-back seasons from last offseason's expensive signings. I'm not convinced they'll be contenders, but likely better than last year.

Los Angeles Angels- Management is never shy about spending money so they still added some modest talent in the offseason, but the rotation and lineup behind Trout (who is increasingly injury-prone carrying this team on his back) still feels lacking- especially in consistiency. Going to need a lot of luck considering the improvement of other teams in the division.

Oakland- Another down season where they'll sell any spare scraps left, but they'll be back in contention soon enough, that you can count on people. For the love of JasedGawd though not in Las Vegas, please.


AL Central

Cleveland- The scrappy little Guardians, made low key moves that improved an already strong roster and despite the lack of star power should be formidable in the AL Central- though given as usual there's not much competition for that top spot.

Minnesotta- Made some impressive improvements to their roster, if they can find consistiency in their rotation they have a chance to at least make a go at the AL Central pennant, and will have plenty of easy wins in the teams below them. The Correa reunion's going to be a bit awkward since he's essentially returning to them as a consolation prize, but will be easily forgiven if those injury concerns led to zilch (though a headache for the Twins management if it does lead to long IL stints as predicted).

Chicago White Sox- Pretty much a dumpster fire these days for the beloved South Siders, Abreu didn't mince words around the dysfunction of last year's mega underachievers and the Clevenger mess is an even bigger black hole around the organization. Probably still good enough for #3 despite a likely losing record, but no longer a team you really want to root for.

Kansas City Royals- I like their young talent, Bobby Witt Jr is especially an exciting young rising star who still has plenty of room to grow and they cushioned their young pitching staff with some reliable veterans, but they're still a few development years away from really being able to contend even in the weaker AL Central.

Detroit- Are they having to start another rebuild? The first one didn't even work, and now they really seem to be directionless at this point. I still believe in Torkelson, and a major bounce-back season from him would work wonders in excellerating their climb out of the cellar, but I feel like I'm talking about them the same way I did back in 2018, where they need far more time to let their young players grow and develop and sell high on their overpaid veterans. The early 10's seem like a distant memory at this point as they seem to be embarking on a major lost decade.


AL East

New York Yankees- Yeah Yankees Still Suck, but they're also still good enough to win in the league's most loaded division despite the questions about their pitching depth. The incredibly quiet offseason beyond the Judge re-signing showed, however, that this definitely ain't your daddy's Yankees.

Toronto- Lineup's still too good and still young & fresh that I think they'll beat up on most teams of the league, made some improvements in their bullpen though I still think they're rotation is a bit of a question mark beyond the top 3. If their back-end relives their better days, then the Jays are the best bet to be signing OHHHH CANADDAAAAA this november.

Tampa Bay- The no-stars, no-budget Devil Rays always find a way to field a competitive roster despite always cutting their best players when they get too expensive, this offseason though they surprisingly held on to a lot of intriguing sell-high members on their roster, so the Rays may even overachieve their usual playoff-bound expectations.

Baltimore- Playing the long game (and knowing how tough it can be to lure free agents to Baltimore), a playoff run is completely hinging on a number of major breakouts from their stacked prospect list. Might still fall short in such a stacked division, despite their impressive run last season.

Boston- Yes, I'm putting the Red Sox last and even I still think they could have a winning season at this spot. They made some necessary improvements, especially to the back-end of their lineup and bullpen, but even beyond the Story injury you just can't rely on that rotation for a full season, be it Sale's health or Corey Kluber at this point being a viable #2 starter. They could definitely surprise 2013-style, but it's going to be unusually difficult path this year for the usual contenders.



NL West

LA Dodgers- Some things are just inevitable: the sky being Blue, traffic jams in SoCal, Trump being charged with a crime, and the Dodgers winning the NL West. If they win the Ohtani sweepstakes next season expect their new role as the sole villian of the League.

San Diego- They have gone all in, which is impressive for the small-market Padres, even as boneheaded as deals like the Boagert's is in the long term doesn't mean they still can't be a menace while they still have Juan Soto. Interesting to see how Tatis returns, otherwise it's clearly World Series or Bust for the free-spending Padres.

San Francisco- Lost out on both Judge and Correa, but have a roster & rotation that can pull them back into the expanded playoffs if they stay healthy. And that's a MAJOR if, as there's a reason the Mariners let Haniger go (not to mention the shaky health of their other outfielders) and a rotation filled with injury history. Intriguing storyline to watch

Arizona- A sleeping giant, so much young talent but still needs a lot of experiencing and honing to really be a consistient contender. Expect their rise in the 2025 post-soto NL West, not this season

Colorado- I really understand the frustration a lot of the Rockies (Romanelli) fanbase have with the management and overall direction (or lack therof) with the team, never really making the big moves to help them contend but also seem allergic for even a low-key rebuild. If this team once again is cellar-dwelling come july they should sell any expiring contract of value and load up on needed pitching prospects, otherwise it's just going to be a broken record of not-terrible, never-close-to-contending teams year after year.




St. Louis- No surprise to see at the top here, either. Given Wainwright's injury does hit their rotation a bit to start the year (probably not the way he wanted his final season to go down), but the bullpen and especially their lineup should be dominant throughout much of the year- especially if Goldschmidt and Arenando keep up their MVP level of play.

Milwaukee- Will once again survive on the health of their stacked pitching staff, though unlocking what's been ailing Yelich and regaining at least a 25-homer, 135 OPS+ form could prove crucial in them challenging the Cardinals atop the central

Cubs- Always approach the offseason and the draft like they're one move away from contention, but they have far too many holes and uncertainies in the roster they do have to really leapfrog the much better (and more consistient) pair of teams ahead of them.

Pirates- McCutchen is Back! Again should be an invigorating season for the youngsters and the franchise Icon, even if the most promise in the organization is still playing below the AAA line. Expect another season of growing pains, but at least they'll be more fun to watch.

Reds- Went full-on major rebuild, and are stacked with talents in the lower minors but could very well lose 120 games this season.


NL East

NY Mets- Money can buy happiness if you're a major market fan . No, they'll be tops if they stay healthy, they could even afford to lose a generational (and oft-injured) talent like Degrom and even cut Correa because of health concerns. If they can finally learn to stop choking in the playoffs then they could actually be smiling in November as much as they do during the offseason, as well.

Atlanta- Model franchise in terms of devolping their talent and retaining them, will easily contend with the Mets for the pennant and a surefire playoff contender unless they experience an avalanche of 60-Day IL stints.

Philadelphia- Not having Harper till the last couple of months puts a bit of a hole in the middle of their lineup, though he's kind of shown he's more of an x-factor in the playoffs than the regular season. But no otherwise this lineup is still very good, obviously aided by the major Trea Turner addition and who knows if Bohm finally stops tantalizing and realizes his vast potential, and they significantly upgraded their once top-heavy rotation. The lack of athleticism and mediocre defense will likely cause them to lose a few more games than they should, IE keep them from competiting with the Mets and Braves for the pennant, but could see another long playoff run if they peak at the right time again (even if they can't sneak up on teams anymore after last season's WS appearence).

Miami- Has there been a more hapless organization to win multiple world series? What is with their bizarre draft picks and inability to develop their prospects, especially hitters? And if the Marlins win and no one's around to see it, does it count?

Washington- The Soto trade and it's depth of already-MLB-ready players to go with the blue-chip minor leaguers will cushion their major rebuild at the top level at least somewhat, but it's going to be a lonnnggggg path back to contention as they're likely just going to run out the clock on the awful Strasbourg-Corbin contracts.



For the playoffs?

American League

Playoff Byes: Houston, New York Yankees
Wild Cards: Toronto, Cleveland, Seattle, Minnesotta

National League

Playoff Byes: NY Mets, LA Dodgers
Wild Cards: Atlanta, St. Louis, San Diego, Philadelphia

For the world series? For shits and giggles I may predict Blue Jays over Padres, but in reality it will be something boring like Astros vs Dodgers or sth

[Romanelli]

[CA Dreamin]

I'm usually on top things concerning America's Pastime but I regret to say this season snuck on me during a crucial time, and I've missed most things that happened during the off-season. In other words, a lot. So the bases are 3 inches bigger, the shift is outlawed, and there is tighter pitch clock...that ought to lead to more stolen bases, infield singles, and just more singles in general. Hopefully less HRs and Ks too. As much as I love the game, it was lacking in action in recent years. Anyway, I missed most of what happened as far as free agency and spring training goes so I have no idea what to predict. My man Bryce Harper is out most of the year? Damn, that's news to me (and it sucks).

[EyeKanFly]

Romanelli: love your writeup about the Rockies. Only ever been to one game at Coors but it's an incredible experience, top 3 stadiums I've been to (out of a dozen or so).

I won't/can't go as in-depth with my Nats but they're... clearly rebuilding. Gosh it's a difficult time to be a Nats fan but their games are still fun.

Here are my somewhat baseless predictions:

AL East:
1. Blue Jays (look great this year!)
2. Yankees (money doesn't lie)
3. Rays
4. Red Sox
5. Orioles (poor O's, if they were in another division they'd have a better shot, but I do think 3-5 in AL East will be tight)

AL Central:
1. Guardians (new 'C', let's go)
2. White Sox (my favorite of the 2 Sox teams)
3. Twins (I think 2-3 will be close)
4. Royals
5. Tigers (I think 4-5 will be close)

AL West:
1. Houston (they'll run away with it, the bastards)
2. Mariners (one year the Marioners will make it happen, I don't think it'll be this year)
3. Rangers
4. Angels (my gut tells me they won't be as strong as they should be)
5. A's (yeah...)

NL East:
1. Mets (money talks)
2. Braves (as per usual)
3. Phillies (3-way race for the top)
4. Marlins (safely middle-of-the-pack)
5. Nationals (ugh... my Nats, if they don't have the worst record in baseball this year, I'll take that as a triumph)

NL Central:
1. Cardinals
2. Brewers (would love to see them on top, but not betting on it)
3. Pirates (meh team, great stadium)
4. Cubs (will underperform)
5. Reds

NL West:
1. Dodgers (will this finally be their year*? *2020 didn't count...)
2. Padres (c'mon Padres, I bet on you last year, don't let me down this year!)
3. Diamondbacks
4. Rockies
5. Giants (I also think these guys will underperform)

Postseason predictions:
wild cards (in no particular order): Yankees, Rays, Mariners; Braves, Padres, Brewers
World Series: Guardians over Mets (anything but Houston, please)


New rules:
Pitch clock: love, love, love. Generally if I'm at a game I like it to be longer rather than shorter, but going under 3 hours is HUGE for watching on TV. I'm sure I'll catch way more baseball on TV this year than last.
Bigger bags: I think I like this in theory. Increased safety seems like a good thing, and stolen bases are exciting. I do think a 45% increase in bag size was too much, but I have no idea what kind of analysis led to the 3" decision.
Limited shift: I'm indifferent on this one. Not sure I'll quite understand/comprehend the effects of this rule in real-time. I'll give it more of a chance before passing judgment.




Well these are all my (extremely silly) hot takes for the season. Despite my bottom-of-the-barrel Nats, I'm more excited for baseball this season than I have been since 2020!
_________________
51 Washington, D.C. albums!

[cestuneblague]

[Romanelli]

The Rockies farm system was nowhere near as thin as people thought it was. And now, especially at the Class A level, it's pretty loaded with talent. They have several prospects on the verge of being ready, and some (Tovar, Feltner, Montero) who are already there. Bryant was a good signing...they needed an anchor in the lineup with a veteran presence to go along with Blackmon & Cron. Unfortunately, Bryant spent his first year injured.

Trevor Story...that was an interesting problem. There was a lot of talk that the Rockies should have given him an extension. And they WANTED to sign him to a multi year deal. The problem with Story was that, especially in his last year there, he was over-valuing himself. He wanted big money with multiple years while he was having a very average year. But the biggest issue was that he wanted the same player option that the team had given to Arenado. The Rockies had just been torched by Nolan (I have love for every Rockies player, past and present. Except for Nolan. He SCREWED the Rockies...and they're still feeling it), and there was no way they were giving Story the same deal. There were no offers for him, and even after the season, it took until almost opening day last year before Boston picked him up. And he was nowhere near what he had been 2 years before. Story gets overvalued very easily.

I hate the runner on 2nd rule. That's beer league softball to me!
_________________
May we all get to heaven
'Fore the devil knows we're dead...

[peate754]

[CA Dreamin]

All-Star break thoughts:

Yankees and Red Sox are last and second-to-last in the division. Fingers crossed that continues. I especially like the fact the Rays and Orioles, who are in first and second, are out-competing the Jays, Yanks, and Sox with less than half the payroll of those teams.

The AL Central is a huge disappointment. The Guardians, last year's surprise team, leads the way with a .500 record. Maybe last year's club was a flash in the pan. Meanwhile the Twins and White Sox are failing despite the moves they've made in recent years. And the Royals are now in the Athletics' company vying for worst team of the decade. Will somebody take this division? Or should MLB consider an NBA approach and not factor in divisions in the league standings? Personally I'd rather see the 7 best teams in the playoffs than have to give a token playoff spot to one of these underachievers.

What will the Angels do with Ohtani? 4th place and a sub .500 record is a pretty bad look when you have two of the best players in the game. But it seems to be the narrative of the Angels since the start of the Trout-Pujols Era to have two great players on huge long-term deals, but no team built around them. I don't know if the Angels are willing to gamble on another record-setting contract. And with Trout injured for 4 to 6 weeks and three teams ahead of them, it sadly looks like the Angels WS hopes are diminishing. So do they trade Ohtani before the deadline, and try to re-tool for next year? Or do they keep him and cling onto hope they'll get back in contention? Which brings up a huge 'what if' after the season. Seems like a given Ohtani will have the first ever $500M deal. Even if the Angels could afford that, would they be willing?

Hate to say it but the Braves lineup is freaking stacked, and they're all in their mid-20s to early-30s, set up for long-term success. Meanwhile the pitching staff is battered by injuries, yet they the team has gone 27-6 since the start of June. Scary to think how good they might be once Fried and Wright return from the IL. As of right now, they have to be WS favorites. As for my Phillies, I'm pleased to see their recent hot streak and getting back into WC contention. I'm not sure what the answer is to the Aaron Nola question. The Mets banking on veteran pitching isn't working out so far.

Lastly, the Dodgers. Despite losing the Turners in the offseason; Despite the horrible elbow injuries to May and Buehler in the rotation; Despite Urias and Gonsolin pitching much worse than expectations...here they are still leading the NL West as a shadow of last year's 111-win juggernaut. If the Angels are willing to trade Ohtani, I wouldn't be shocked if LA is the destination.

[Romanelli]

[CA Dreamin]